Folding screen phone biggest short board: no core application scene

What we are discussing today is not how a certain product is, but to return to the topic of "folding screen" itself, to explore the "reasonableness" of the folding screen phone.

First of all, let's take a look at the market performance of folding screen cell phone, according to IDC's latest data report shows that China's folding screen cell phone market shipments in the whole year of 2023 is about 7.007 million units, an increase of 114.5%.

Among them, China's folding screen cell phone market shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023 were about 2.771 million units, a year-on-year growth of 149.6%, the data does look pretty good, and the growth is also very strong.

However, compared with the 2023 Chinese market smartphone shipments of about 270 million, this data is really not quite enough to see.

In general, the folding screen in the market has a certain position, but most of them are still "manufacturers show technology" "market dominance", really want to rely on it to make a lot of money, with the current shipments, it is estimated to be not enough, or can earn not much.

From the outlook, despite the folding screen phone shipments have grown every year, but want to replace the traditional straight plate machine is also almost impossible, there are many reasons, such as the durability of the complex structure of the problem, both the screen crease or hinge strength will change with the use of time.

In addition, there is its higher selling price and maintenance costs, difficult to balance the portability and functionality needs, of course, I feel that the biggest bottleneck blocking the development of folding screen is still the application scene.

Smartphone can do manpower one, is because we need it, this straight plate machine has done very well, even to the point of "volume" can not be rolled, folding screen cell phone is not out of the category of smartphones.

It is only the form and application experience "innovation", but almost no core application scenarios. Whether it is a game or movie, or even mobile office, its advantages are not obvious, and may even have a certain disadvantage because the application is not adapted.

So if the application ecological construction is relatively perfect, folding screen phone is possible to replace the straight plate machine? I think it is still impossible.

In the absence of core use scenarios, even if the application ecological construction is perfect, folding screen phone and straight machine in the user experience gap is also difficult to be opened.

This is because, for most users, the basic functions of a cell phone such as calling, Internet access, photography, etc., the straight plate machine has been able to meet, and the folding screen phone does not provide additional advantages in these aspects.

Unless one day, there is a TOP APP only suitable for folding screen use, or the folding screen, whether in terms of volume or weight, is also comparable to the current thin and light phones, then it is possible to drive the popularity of the folding screen.

Finally:

All in all, without core usage scenarios and technological breakthroughs, it is difficult for folding screen phones to completely replace straight phones.

Of course, we also have to recognize that this does not mean that folding screen phones do not have development prospects, with the continuous progress of technology and the constant changes in the market, folding screen phones still have the possibility of finding their own place in some specific areas or scenarios.

And technological development often brings unexpected changes, perhaps at some point in the future there will be some kind of disruptive change, prompting the folding screen phone further.

Only now for consumers, folding screen cell phone is still more "fresh" or show personality attributes, most users will choose folding screen products, often more out of curiosity about its novel form and unique technology, rather than out of the actual use of the demand.