Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max shipments will be 20 million units less

A new report from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will see a severe shortage of iPhone 14 Pro devices in the fourth quarter of this year.

According to Kuo, the company will ship between 70-75 million iPhones, compared to the market consensus of 80-85 million. iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max will ship 15-20 million units less than expected in total. The problems are attributed to the recent COVID-19 outbreak in the country, which led to a factory shutdown and triggered a reduction in production at Foxconn's main iPhone factory.

Kuo further said that the average capacity utilization rate of the Zhengzhou iPhone factory was only about 20 percent in November and is expected to reach only 30-40 percent in December. HC and Luxshare ICT, two other handset makers, will receive about 10 percent of iPhone 14 and 14 Pro orders from Foxconn, respectively. However, mass shipments will not occur until late December at the earliest.

Since the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are quite expensive, Kuo predicts that Apple's iPhone revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 "could be significantly lower than the market consensus of 20-30% or more."

As of press time, the iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max are out of stock at Apple stores in the United States. There has also been a four-week delay in orders on Apple's website. As a result, Kuo believes that much of the demand for these models will simply "disappear" in the recession, rather than being delayed.